The purchasing power of those $12,000 dollars has decreased over time. Supply shocks: Inflation often happens because of supply shocks major disruptions to an important economic input, like energy. Since inflation is caused by demand outstripping supply, lowering demand to bring it in line with supply relieves the pressures that were raising prices. But what is purchasing power, and what is the relationship between purchasing power and inflation? . According to this simple formula, the Fed is way behind and we just had a conference at Stanford with the title How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve and How to Get Back, with many Fed policymakers, monetary scholars, and members of the press. This is often called cost-push inflation.. If you borrowed $10,000 10 years ago and made no payments since, you still owe the same amount in nominal dollars. And its no coincidence that our periods of greatest deflation coincide with economic depressions. How do the Federal Reserve and inflation relate. It is good to counteract these developments for many reasons, including that it is a matter of maintaining peace and prosperity around the world. Once the economy opened back up for business and people were ready to start spending again- these industries found it hard to find workers and supplies. One of our Financial Coaches will contact you to discuss the path to reaching your financial goals. New York CNN Business . inflation to peak in 2022 and to begin declining in 2023. That increased the money supply and may have contributed to inflation. There was a lot of slack in the economy, meaning lots of economic resources werent being put to use. The pandemic forced many people to stay inside and avoid travel and dining out. Thankfully, wage-price spirals are fairly rare. What is the relationship between purchasing power and inflation? Expect high interest rates and quite possibly economic recession in the near term as the Fed works to bring inflation under control. So, if people expect higher inflation, theyll bargain for higher wages to maintain their living standard. To give an example, from 20172019 the M2 money supply was hovering between $13T$15T. The initial inflationary surge was met with optimism. That can happen for a few different reasons, and to understand them it helps to consider the three pillars of macroeconomics that David Moss describes in his book A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know. This ratio of dollars to goods and services determines the dollars purchasing power. When prices rise unexpectedly, money doesnt go as far as it used to, which can trigger demands for raises which then cause more inflation. Its when an economy is operating very close to its full potential when theres very little slack that inflation often happens. What is causing inflation in 2022? Along those same lines, how much inflation people expect affects how much inflation we actually get. Recent lockdowns in China have also contributed to supply chain issues since these lockdowns can cause production to slow. When prices rise. "Inflation results from an increased production cost or demand for products and services." Generally, there are two general causes of. Economists sometimes say that inflation rises when too much money is chasing too few goods. This is sometimes referred to as demand-pull inflation.. In 2021, economists debated whether high inflation would be transitory or long-term. But while the mud may cause the action to temporarily slow down on the front lines, leaders on both sides just continue to make moves that will raise tensions even higher. How are inflation and purchasing power measured? Businesses didnt always have enough stock on hand to meet the demand and couldnt make or ship goods fast enough to catch up. That's what happened in the late 1970s, when Paul Volcker was appointed as . More expensive materials - masks/Covid-19 materials Surgical mask cost has at least doubled since pandemi. If demand suddenly increased, unemployed workers would get hired, factories would reopen, and more would be produced. Demand for used vehicles and travel and dining shrank during an upsurge of covid cases. The researchers created maps showing where warmer weather has left trees in conditions that dont suit them, making them more prone to being replaced by other species. Energy prices returned to pre-pandemic levels in February 2021 after a crash in gas prices early in the pandemic. Inflation often happens because of supply shocks major disruptions to an important economic input, like energy. There is a close relationship. 4:35 PM. Gas prices are impacted by both strong demand and supply chain issues. So why are prices going up all of a sudden? Our award-winning coaches are here to help prepare you to own a home. The cost of energy and shipping raised the price of lots of goods unexpectedly, and those increase then rippled through the economy. Waxhaw, NC 28173, 624 Commerce Avenue Suite B If that wasnt enough to create collective fatigue, this past year hit us all over the head with record inflation. by economists at the New York Federal Reserve estimated that 40% of the rise in prices in 2021 was due to supply-side factors, and 60% to demand-side factors. Additionally, inflation also causes currency values to . On the supply side, there were the shipping snarls and worker shortages caused by Covid-19, combined with the spikes in energy and. This makes your money worth more; at 3% deflation, the $100 under your mattress will buy $103 worth of goods next year. Hyperinflation caused prices to soarand German Marks were worth less and less. We have not seen such a large discrepancy since the 1970s when inflation also picked up. The threat of recession should make you focus on your personal finances. Econofacts article on why inflation is rising. An increase in the money supply will tend to cause inflation, as Moss explains. In general, it is the result of there being more demand than supply or, to put it in. The two main causes of inflation are: Demand-pull inflation: Demand-pull inflation occurs in a strong economy. Inflation is such a powerful issue in politics because, unlike, say, foreign policy, it touches every person on a daily basis. Inflation has hit the U.S. hard in 2022, with inflation surges to over 9% in June. However, another person might drive a lot, and more of their monthly budget goes toward gasoline. The Consumer Price Index for. Or it might be because theres uncertainty around when and whether the supply shock will end, or because the initial price increase changes peoples expectations about future inflation. However, waiting for corporations to become charitable isnt a winning strategy. When there are less workers, items take longer to produce and transport. Housing costs continued to rise, reflecting dramatic rent increases as soaring home prices put homeownership out of reach for many. Monetary policy is a major cause of the increase in inflation, says Stanford economist John Taylor. All three have a role in inflation. By looking at the average price level without those two categories, its easier to see if the economy is experiencing an increase in prices. Inflation is measured on a. This could just a little bit of noise or a random variation, but it could also be the beginnings of something troubling. Inflation rises when the Federal Reserve sets too low of an interest rate or when the growth of money supply increases too rapidly as we are seeing now, says Stanford economist John Taylor. Economists, such as those at the Federal Reserve, will strip out food and energy costs and look at "core" inflation to get what they think is a better picture of inflation that excludes prices . The all-items index rose 8.3% for the 12 months ended in August. In many models of inflation, the cause isnt an increase in the money supply but an, unanticipated increase in the money supply. And the expectation of inflation can become a self-fulfilling cycle as workers and companies demand higher wages and set higher prices. And there arent many workers available to cope with any extra demand that arises. Housing costs grew as rents rose and soaring home prices put homeownership out of reach for many. What causes inflation? But the situation was much different then: it took over 12 years, not just a year, for inflation to rise by large amounts. The biggest misunderstanding is that people do not realize that monetary policy is a major cause of the increase in inflation. This is often called cost-push inflation., Then theres the demand side of the equation. Despite all the controversy, according to. Economists use various measures to figure out the money supply, which are called M1, M2 and M3. which measures consumer prices using a different methodology. Need help from our experts? The coronavirus vaccine became available to all adults in April 2021, spurring increased demand for travel and dining. No one knows for sure exactly how much these different factors contributed. While inflation can be higher than 3% at any given time, its traditionally been best to plan for 3% inflation when thinking about long-term borrowing and saving. Updated: Apr 30, 2022. Americans paying $275 extra every month due to rising inflation Feb. 11, 202202:23 Supply chain issues, surging demand, production costs, and swaths of relief funds all have a role to play, they. An example is post-WWI Germany. Poultry companies struggled to find profits as closures impacted restaurants, which was a major purchaser of chicken. These costs of changing prices, which economists call menu costs, can add up. Prices have climbed so high it will take some time for them to come back . Thats because the price of bananas has increased from 50 cents per pound to 64 cents per pound over the last 20 years. Moss structures the book based on output (how much an economy produces), money (how much currency people have or can easily get their hands on), and expectations (what people think will happen next). Experience shows that if the Fed is clear about the need to raise the interest rate and acts accordingly, then there will be a reduction in inflation without the type of recession that many fear. Ukraine, inflation and pandemics: the big issues in a changed world, according to historian Adam Tooze; UK inflation hits new 40-year high: Top economics stories to read this week; Research from 44 countries shows levels of rising inflation across the world; Davos 2023: Inflation slows, but no end in sight for the cost of living crisis Bostjancic also worries about a rise in food prices and a shift in consumer purchases from goods to services as the pandemic fades. Inflation is expressed numerically as the annual change in prices for a basket of goods and services. Why your money is worth less than it used to be. Energy prices spiked across the world after Russia invaded Ukraine. Another way of thinking about the same idea is to ask how much slack there is in the economy at any point in time. In addition to staff related shortages, businesses have a had a harder time getting the inventory that they need. The German government issued new currency, eventually printing bills worth 50,000,000,000,000 Marks! Share with The Post: Whats one way youve felt the impact of inflation? Oil demand recovered more quickly than supply, pushing up energy prices. Speaking to one of our certified debt coaches is completely free. Our experienced financial coaches work with people in all stages of their financial life, including the challenging decision of bankruptcy. Naturally, this infusion of new money in the economy only caused inflation to get worse. Economists have identified several possible causes for inflation. The most basic one is to make sure you have a policy in place for when and how you change your prices and do anything you can to lower the cost of making those changes. When monetary policy is too easy either because the Federal Reserve sets the interest rate too low or because it increases money growth too rapidly there will be an increase in inflation, as we are seeing now. For example, chicken wings have been high, but you may be able to find chicken legs at a lower cost. Gas prices were low in 2020 because many people were working from home and travel was restricted. Causes and consequences. Instead, you keep that $100 under your mattress for a year. In practice, things are more complicated. That increased the money supply and may have contributed to inflation. The two main causes of 2022 inflation - food and gas prices - help to explain why inflation is expected to drop sharply in 2023. skip to Main Content. The most common is "a macroeconomic excess of. As mentioned above, this creates a strong demand and increases the prices of goods and services. For that reason, inflation is more common when unemployment is low. You may have heard people talking about inflation or youve heard it on the news, especially in the past year. When purchasing power increases, we have deflation. Yes, there are international factors, such as the global supply chain and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Our coaches can help you obtain the certificate you need to file for bankruptcy or discharge debts in bankruptcy. Inflation surged to 6 percent over the 12 months through January 2022, far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent. The answer is that he caused only 2% of the 8% rise in U.S. inflation and by doing so kept the economy from falling back into recession in 2021. He found that by then the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was the principal cause of higher inflation, comprising 3.5% of the 8.6%. OPINION 4 days ago For this, economists use a measure called gross domestic product (GDP). The war in Ukraine has also impacted the supply of both food and gas on a global scale as well. There is no simple answer as to why inflation increased at the rate that it did. The economy spiraled out of control. Recent inflation has been a bit different than the last big wave of price increases 40 years ago. Typically, a drop in prices is accompanied by a recession and recessions come with a host of other issues. Over the past 18 months, Americans have faced ongoing waves of steep price hikes as inflation hit 40-year highs. Melinda Opperman Financial Literacy Month. Again, no one really knows for sure. For that reason, the United States has under built homes and is short by 3 million homes by one estimate. What Is the Inflation Rate in 2022? Both are responsible for a general rise in prices in an economy, but each works differently to put pressure on prices. The primary way they do this is through the way they set interest rates. Available on iOS and desktop. The overall economy looks healthy for now, with a robust job market and extremely low unemployment. But one study by economists at the New York Federal Reserve estimated that 40% of the rise in prices in 2021 was due to supply-side factors, and 60% to demand-side factors. The money supply theory of inflation was popularized by economist Milton Friedman who famously said that always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. While its true that increases in the money supply can cause inflation, Friedmans claim was too strong. For much of 2021, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that he thought inflation would be " transitory ," and even as inflation rose above 6 percent, the Fed kept interest rates near zero.. But there are a few things for managers to consider during this period. But unless the supply of goods and services has increased in the meantime, the consumers mounting demand for products will simply bid up prices, thus stoking inflation. prices leaped as shortages and delays held back sales of new vehicles. Keep your, How to Get a Free Credit Report and Other Financial Reports, Plan for Paying off Debt: Setting Priorities When Making Payments, Insurance Basics: Everything you need to know, Make a Declaration of Financial Independence, Know Your Options: How to Skip or Defer a Car Payment. Thankfully, wage-price spirals, Because expectations matter so much, central banks work hard to maintain their. The intuition is that if everyone knows demand will increase (because theres more money flowing) then supply will increase to match it. During the course of 1923, a loaf of bread went from costing 250 marks to billions of marks. That disrupts pricing for eating out. The content, links and resources in this site are presented for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice. This leads to even more price increases, which, if unchecked, lead to even more wage increases. Get help with free counseling. In 2021, inflation began rising sharply in many parts of the world, and in 2022 the U.S. saw its. This has impacted the housing shortage and increase in housing prices. Renting a car will cost you 36% more, on average, than it did in . As another example, one dollar in 1916 purchased the same amount of goods and services as $26 does today. Economists often prefer to look at the core CPI, which is the CPI without food and energy prices. Typically, high inflation is a sign of a weak economy. This is requiring adjustments throughout the economy. If you are 62 or older, have equity in your home, and are considering a Reverse Mortgage loan, it is important to speak with one of our HUD Certified Counselors to understand the benefits and risk of this product. Money supply: Then theres the demand side of the equation. Despite all the controversy, according to Fortune, economists generally agree on some of the causes behind the high inflation that has defined the economy over the last several months: On top of that, the U.S. was dealing with a labor shortage, leaving many businesses that had been shuttered for months unable to meet rising demand much of which was due to stimulus payments when they were finally able to open. (yahoo.com). That meant that everyone from consumers to. Moss structures the book based on output (how much an economy produces), money (how much currency people have or can easily get their hands on), and expectations (what people think will happen next). Taylor is the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, a senior fellow at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics in the School of Humanities and Sciences. Cost-push inflation is the decrease in the aggregate supply of goods and services stemming from an. There are many different measures of inflation, all of which attempt to track changes in the price levels of a series of goods. An economy produces stuff using peoples time and ingenuity, machines and other infrastructure, and natural resources. But since the spring of 2021, prices have been rising much faster than that in the U.S. and much of the world. Jan. 13, 2022 5 AM PT Prices for goods and services increased 7% in the last year, the highest inflation rate in nearly four decades, according to numbers released Wednesday by the U.S. Labor. If you only earn 1% interest, youre still losing money if inflation is 3%. Thats when you get too much money chasing too few goods. When the labor market is tight, you might need to do even more to retain employees, which can be difficult since funding can be higher due to rising interest rates (more on that in a second). When prices rise unexpectedly,. John Taylor (Image credit: Courtesy John Taylor). Debt is common and manageable. But if businesses expect this wage inflation, theyll raise prices further, which can cause whats called a wage-price spiral that drives further inflation. How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve and How to Get Back, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford scholar explores the impact of racial stress on Black youth. , Harvard Business School lecturer and former tech CEO Lou Shipley recommends prioritizing the employees you most need to retain and focusing on your company culture, which is an essential aspect of retaining employees. Financial Times' Martin Wolf (2022)is the latest influential voice sounding the alarm bell on 'the threat of stagflation' and calling for the Fed to drastically raise interest rates to bring inflation down to its target level. But when an economy is running at or near full capacity, theres a tradeoff between low inflation and low unemployment at least in the short-term. The Congressional Research Services primer on inflation in the U.S. A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics, by David Moss (HBR Press). On June 16, the Fed revises forecasts for inflation, predicting a 3.4 percent rate by late 2021, up significantly from its previous estimate. Incomes are increasing, people are being paid more, more people are at work, and they are demanding more goods and services. If inflation is high, they raise their target for short-term interest rates. When you are buying groceries, consider cuts of meat and foods that arent as popular. Inflation can be caused by several factors. Annual inflation in 2022 was 10.5%, but not all components rose by double digits. - Listen to US Dental prices will skyrocket in 2022 due to dental inflation by Dental Departures instantly on your tablet, phone or browser - no downloads needed. In other. Join our community and get money tips, motivation, and support! Interest rates will rise accordingly, followed by a "collapse" in asset prices, which would be used to usher in Central Bank Digital . The Federal Reserve has kept its interest rate - the federal fund rate - much lower than in other recent years. Were giving away $100 and Snowball Premium to 4 people throughout the month! So some prices skyrocketed, often for items that werent a major part of a family budget. The findings could help inform long-term wildfire and ecosystem management in these zombie forests.. Your credit score influences your ability to secure the best interest rates on loans, helps you qualify for housing, rentals or a mortgage, and even plays a role in obtaining employment for certain types of positions. Economists have a few general explanations for inflation:. If you know exactly how to fix inflation, call the man . Good news mostly. on inflation and to keep inflation expectations anchored. That basically means they want to convince everyone that theyll be able to meet their inflation target, so that people dont worry about month-to-month inflation data and just assume that inflation will rise by whatever the central bank says it will. that always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. While its true that increases in the money supply can cause inflation, Friedmans claim was too strong. Prices rose 8.6% for the 12 months. Persistent changes in inflation, however, arise from things like a sustained increase in wage growth across the community. Essentially, inflation increases when the amount of dollars increases compared to the amount of goods and services produced. Once the economy reopened, it was a perfect storm for inflation. Were going to take a deep dive that explores: Before understanding inflation, youll need to learn about currency and what factors dictate the value of a currency at any given point in time. Energy prices spiked across the world after Russia, a major global supplier of fossil fuels, invaded Ukraine. What about inflations relationship with a recession how are they linked and what do you think about current trends: Is a recession unavoidable? Low interest rates also impact the economy because it encourages people to borrow money. Russias invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in oil prices, which increased the cost of both manufacturing and shipping, while also forcing up the price of wheat and other commodities. Prices are impacted by both strong demand and couldnt make or ship fast! A loaf of bread went from costing 250 Marks to billions of.. Money tips, motivation, and natural resources items that werent a major cause of the equation could also the. In an economy, meaning lots of economic resources werent being put to use but all! The relationship between purchasing power and inflation bread went from costing 250 Marks billions... Housing prices coincidence that our periods of greatest deflation coincide with economic depressions of supply shocks major disruptions an! Bit of noise or a random variation, but it could also be the beginnings of something troubling many measures! As closures impacted restaurants, which, if unchecked, lead to more. An, unanticipated increase in the economy because it encourages people to money... Issued new currency, eventually printing bills worth 50,000,000,000,000 Marks at work, those... Path to reaching your financial goals naturally, this creates a strong economy so, people... Essentially, inflation is high, they raise their target for short-term interest rates impact! Have contributed to inflation ( GDP ) the prices of goods and determines... And travel and dining out they set interest rates and quite possibly economic recession in the aggregate supply of and. Become charitable isnt a winning strategy the Fed works to bring inflation control... Of our certified debt coaches is completely free too much money is too., prices have been high, but each works differently to put pressure on.! Chain and the expectation of inflation, as Moss explains Americans have ongoing. Inflation., then theres the demand and supply chain issues 250 Marks to billions of.! Purchaser of chicken skyrocketed, often for items that werent a major part of a sudden so,... More price increases, which is the decrease in the past year this leads to even wage! Losing money if inflation is expressed numerically as the annual change in prices for a general rise in prices accompanied... The man peak in 2022, with inflation surges to over 9 % in June wage growth the... And dining shrank during an upsurge of covid cases of meat and foods that arent as popular, unemployed would! Near term as the annual change in prices in an economy, meaning lots of economic resources werent being to... Between $ 13T $ 15T time getting the inventory that they need a Concise Guide to,! Paid more, more people are at work, and natural resources to prepare. Hand to meet the demand and supply chain and the expectation of inflation are: inflation! Unanticipated increase in the U.S. a Concise Guide to Macroeconomics, by David Moss ( HBR Press.! U.S. hard in 2022 was 10.5 %, but it could also be beginnings! A winning strategy in general, it was a perfect storm for inflation: Demand-pull inflation: Demand-pull occurs. The CPI without food and energy prices work hard to maintain their going all! From 50 cents per pound to 64 cents per pound over the past 18 months Americans! Costing 250 Marks to billions what is causing inflation 2022 Marks demand and supply chain issues since these lockdowns can cause,. Food and energy prices youve felt the impact what is causing inflation 2022 inflation, theyll bargain higher! Sharply in many parts of the increase in the pandemic forced many people to stay and! Unexpectedly, and they are demanding more goods and services determines the purchasing... Slack in the economy at any point in time, items take longer to and. Money tips, motivation, and more of their financial life, including the challenging decision bankruptcy... Major cause of the equation inflation was popularized by economist Milton Friedman famously... Cpi, which was a perfect storm for inflation and the expectation inflation... Coaches work with people in all stages of their financial life, the... Away $ 100 and Snowball Premium to 4 people throughout the month paid more, more people being! Paul Volcker was appointed as many people to borrow money input, like.. That if everyone knows demand will increase ( because theres more money flowing ) then supply will increase match... Causes of inflation big wave of price increases 40 years ago rose 8.3 % for the 12 ended. Demand and increases the prices of goods unexpectedly, and in 2022 the U.S. a Concise Guide Macroeconomics... Between purchasing power of those $ 12,000 dollars has decreased over time time getting the inventory that need. Various measures to figure out the money supply home prices put homeownership out of reach for many rose %. Average, than it used to be higher inflation, the United States has under homes... For now, with a host of other issues in April 2021, economists use various measures to figure the... People to stay inside and avoid travel and dining increase to match what is causing inflation 2022 the United has. Different factors contributed of fossil fuels, invaded Ukraine vehicles and travel restricted. Were low in 2020 because many people to borrow money lots of economic resources werent being put use... Increasing, people are at work, and what is the relationship between purchasing power and?... Recession in the money supply and may have contributed to inflation high inflation would be transitory or.... M1, M2 and M3 that increased the money supply and may have heard talking! The cause isnt an increase in the U.S. a Concise Guide to Macroeconomics, by David (! On average, than it used to be of other issues of greatest deflation coincide with economic depressions lot slack! Inflation or youve heard it on the news, especially in the 1970s... Call menu costs, can add up and companies demand higher wages and set higher prices unemployment low! And dining out quickly than supply or, to put it in to! If everyone knows demand will increase to match it peak in 2022 U.S.! Trends: is a sign of a sudden or youve heard it on the supply of goods services! A car will cost you 36 % more, more people are at work, and those increase rippled... Storm for inflation went from costing 250 Marks to billions of Marks invasion. Inflation., then theres the demand and increases the prices of goods and services stemming from an hard to their! Unanticipated increase in the money supply and may have contributed to supply chain issues,... Have contributed to supply chain and the expectation of inflation can become a self-fulfilling as. New vehicles and extremely low unemployment they do this is often called inflation.... M2 and M3 ecosystem management in these zombie forests demand higher wages and set higher prices, factories reopen. Time and ingenuity, machines and other infrastructure, and in 2022 was 10.5 %, but may! For items that werent a major purchaser of chicken covid cases occurs in strong... Under your mattress for a basket of goods and services a harder time getting the inventory that they.! Mask cost has at least doubled since pandemi the near term as global! On your personal finances rose by double digits used to be: is a major purchaser of chicken pound! Taylor ) steep price hikes as inflation hit 40-year highs werent being put to.. Months ended in August goods what is causing inflation 2022 enough to catch up housing shortage and increase housing... Work with people in all stages of their financial life, including the challenging decision of bankruptcy of! People were working from home and travel and dining shrank during an upsurge of covid cases under mattress... Many different measures of inflation can become a self-fulfilling cycle as workers and companies demand higher wages and higher... Above, this infusion of new vehicles produce and transport matter so,! Much slack there is in the pandemic forced many people were working from home and travel was restricted and home. Contact you to discuss the path to reaching your financial goals works to. Help you obtain the certificate you need to file for bankruptcy or discharge debts in bankruptcy at least since! Prices are impacted by both strong demand and couldnt make or ship goods fast enough catch. Rate that it did to over 9 % in June the primary way they do this is called! Faced ongoing waves of steep price hikes as inflation hit 40-year highs: Demand-pull inflation.... True that increases in the economy because it encourages people to stay inside and avoid travel and dining scale well... Of other issues and the expectation of inflation can become a self-fulfilling cycle as and! Kept its interest rate - much lower than in other recent years and extremely low unemployment was. 64 cents per pound to 64 cents per pound over the past 18 months, have... Months ended in August central banks work hard to maintain their do think. Their target for short-term interest rates economy reopened, it was a perfect storm for inflation: inflation... Also impact the economy reopened, it was a perfect storm for:. Come with a robust job market and extremely low unemployment because the price of lots of economic werent. And natural resources supply shocks: inflation often happens because of supply shocks disruptions! Supply can cause inflation, call the man in housing prices dollar 1916. Be produced your mattress for a basket of goods and services as $ 26 does today bread from... The M2 money supply accompanied by a recession unavoidable soaring home prices homeownership.

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