Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. I dont listen to the news. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Its horrible. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC What Is An Election Bellwether? : NPR Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I would never vote any other way. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Its gone, Jacobs said. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Blaine County. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Im not happy with either party. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Please read our comments policy before commenting. I just want Trump in. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. They run the gamut from. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Bellwether counties went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. bellwether. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Bellwether - Wikipedia Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. And its never going to come back.. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. "Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Two states have announced recounts. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. The Epoch Times - YouTube RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. To accept cookies, click continue. I think thats what the world needed. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. On . He loves this country. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. We believe that there are two main reasons. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. It was easy. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. That is, until this year. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY People need to get a job, get out and work. Timeline: Rep. Jim Jordan, a Systematic Disinformation Campaign, and The counties are also mostly small and rural. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. This is a high farming community.. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. And we just want that to continue. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 - The Epoch Times As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. I think it worked out without me.. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Medicare is becoming a joke. Your email address will not be published. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. I dont think you should take that away from me.. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. I think its very political right now, honestly. Theres significant variability among them though. I find that hard to believe. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Im looking at both sides of it. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. I think we needed somebody like him.. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. He considers Trump pro-life. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. bellwether - Political Dictionary We need creative leadership, Miller said. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden.

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